NATO throws down the Gauntlet but will Russia Pick It up

This month, from June 7-17th over 24 NATO and partner countries will be engaging in one of the largest NATO military exercises ever endeavoured since the end of the Cold War. Running in Poland on Russia’s Baltic doorstep, the exercises are touted as part of NATO’s growing efforts to reassure eastern European and Baltic countries of their security within Europe, after Russia’s belligerent actions in the Ukraine.

Over the 10 day period 31,000 troops accompanied by large numbers of military vehicles, aircraft and ships, will be deployed into Poland for Anakonda-16. The exercises are said to include night-time manoeuvers with helicopter assaults and paratroopers dropping into the region of the Vistula River to build a temporary bridge.

Show of Strength or Preparation for Protection

Clearly designed to demonstrate the strength of the NATO Alliance, the involvement of 14,000 United States soldiers and that of non-NATO members Sweden and Finland make this exercise more than just a chance to train.

The exercise provides NATO and Europe with a chance to integrate militarily prior to the event of a Russian incursion. As stated by the US Army, the goal of Anakonda is to ‘exercise and integrate Polish national command and force structures into an allied, joint, multinational environment.’

This practice at integration also has the benefit of demonstrating NATO’s defence capabilities, something NATO has been serious about showing off in the Baltic and Nordic regions since the start of the year. Out of the 150 military exercises NATO has programed for 2016, the largest 8 of all the joint exercises were scheduled for the countries on Russia’s doorstep.

Increasing Fears across Europe

Exercises like Anakonda-16 are placing further stress on the existing deep fractures in the West’s relationship with Russia. A fact that is not missed by the Nordic countries of Sweden, Norway and Finland who are already worrying over their close proximity.

Sweden, in particular, is feeling acutely concerned after NATO released documents detailing Russia’s 2013 military exercise which targeted Sweden with a nuclear attack. Understandably the Swedish government has upped its defence spending with more than US $2.1 billion to be invested in strengthening the military's readiness and warfare capabilities in the 2016-2020 period.

A recent military brief given to the Swedish armed forces personnel attending the Markstrids (Land Combat) conference in Boden stated that Sweden needed to decrease its peacekeeping missions abroad and focus instead on prioritising national defence readiness and capabilities. Swedish Armed Forces’ Maj. Gen. Anders Brännström stated that

"The world situation that we are experiencing, which is clear from strategic decisions made, leads to the conclusion that we could be at war within a few years. For all of us in the military we must, with all the force we can marshal, implement the political decisions,"

This view is echoed by Allan Wildman who is the Chairman of the Swedish Parliament’s Defence Committee who stated,

"The time will come, and it will happen sooner or later, where [Russian President Vladimir] Putin becomes pressured politically. The question is how he will respond to such a situation. Will he become humble and exit Crimea, or will he take other measures. Because of Putin’s track record, Sweden should prepare itself for the latter,"

Russia’s Response?
Sweden’s concerns appear to have some grounding in fact. Over the past 3 years Russia has staged 18 large scale snap military exercises, including the simulated nuclear attack on Sweden, some with over 100,000 military personnel involved.

So in this tit for tat scenario will Russia respond militarily? In a word, no.

According to Andrey Kelin the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s European Cooperation Department,

“American warships do enter the Black Sea now and then. Certainly, this does not meet with [Russia’s] approval and will undoubtedly lead to planning response measures,”

These measure may involve such developments as new bases on the border with Europe which, according to Spanish News Outlet Telesur, is currently underway. Telesur reports that just 50 kilometres away from the Ukrainian border Russia is building a base near the town of Klintsy.

Mr Kelin then went on to signal that there may be another way to resolve the increasing tensions in the form of The NATO-Russia Council. Originally created to forge ties for dialogue and cooperation, the meeting ceased in 2014 thanks to Russia’s annexation of the Crimea and have just recently restarted. Mr Kelin signalled that these meeting might hold the key to diffusing the increasing tensions stating,

“We will see how things move forward. But overall, we can absolutely not give up on the most important channel of cooperation and dialogue,”

Why is Central Asia forgoing Russia for China

Central Asia has long been stuck between a rock and hard place in terms of its geopolitical environment. Landlocked, with China to the east and Russia to the north and west, Central Asian leaders have had to balance their alliances with the powers that surrounded them.

In pre-soviet times Kazakh, Kyrgyz and Uzbek leaders would utilise these relationships to gain wealth for their country. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union it became more about security, making sure the newly formed states were not overrun by the bigger boys. To this end the Central Asian states entered into regional cooperative organisations with China and Russia like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in the hopes of controlling the influence each power exerted in the five nation-states.

Twenty-five years on, this struggle to balance relations has failed and China is now poised to make a spectacular economic conquest of the Central Asian markets. In 2015 China was reported to have become Uzbekistan’s largest trading partner with 3 billion dollars’ worth of trade and Kazakhstan’s largest investor with 33 deals delivering 23.6 billion dollars to the nation. China has also focused heavily on Turkmenistan’s energy sector where it has been purchasing some 30 billion cubic meters of gas a year since 2009 while providing substantial military aid. China also took over in Kyrgyzstan last month as the builder and partner in 2 hydro-power projects.

Russia out and China In

The reversal in Russia’s dominant role in Central Asia is hardly surprising. Russia’s recent economic woes are well documented. Quite simply, they no longer have money to support the region. As a result many countries have been left hanging, as is the case of Kyrgyzstan which recently had to cancel a Russian partnership for a hydropower project that suffered serious setbacks due to the Russian government’s inability to fulfil their commitments.

Additionally Russian ties may be becoming compromised due to Russia’s domineering behaviour. The Economist suggests that Russia has been treating the region like its exclusive hoard. Buying oil and gas at below market rates only to re-export it to elsewhere at a mark-up, pushed countries like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan into the arms of China who has better terms of trade. In this environment it is easy to see why China came to be viewed as an economic stabiliser and a necessity by Central Asian governments in the past few years.

The Eurasian Bear turning into a Dragon

This is not to say that China has not worked hard to cultivate its current position in Central Asia. Starting with a one billion dollar investment in the region in 2000, it has spent up to 50 billion dollars in trade and investments in the region according to the IMF. From developing its western border region’s to ensure its capabilities for trade to building infrastructure like highways, pipelines and railways throughout the region via the 2013 Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) initiative, China is determined to secure the region as its own zone of economic interest and appears to be achieving this goal.

The risk in sidelining Russia for both Central Asia and China is Russia. Russia likes to view Central Asia as it personal Achilles Heel and prefers to keep close ties to the region economically, politically and militarily. Understandably, China’s SREB project and their new round of investment in Russia’s backyard has set off alarm bells in Moscow.

According to Alexander Gabuyev of the Carnegie Moscow Centre , "When China announced its Silk Road plan in Kazakhstan, it was met with a lot of scepticism and even fear by the Russian leadership…..The feeling was, 'It's a project to steal Central Asia from us, they want to exploit our economic difficulties to be really present in the region'."

Countering this push, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the development of a Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) as a way to tie Russia and the Central Asian region together more securely. However, the Union floundered when the financial crisis hit Russia and it has since merged with China’s SREB Initiative.

Bears are tenacious creatures and, like them, Russia has not stopped trying to maintain its status. In the past months it has completed large scale military exercises with Central Asian partners like Tajikistan. Clearly sending a message to both China and Central Asia that they are still in the picture. Vladimir Putin has also made an attempt to slow down China’s entry into these markets by imposing new import restrictions through the EEU.

Central Asians Anti-Sino Relations

There is some risk to China large investments in Central Asia with there being much public distrust and opposition to the Central Asian leaders love affair with China. Anti-Sino sentiment is quite high in many Central Asian states. In Kazakhstan last month there was a series of large protests over a proposal to privatise unused arable land, which Kazakhs feared would be sold off to China. The government has since backed down from the planned privatisation due to the public outcry.

These protests are not isolated to just Kazakhstan. In Kyrgyzstan last year the Prime Minister resigned due to a scandal over the awarding of a contract to a Chinese company, and in 2012, 200 protestors blocked access to a Chinese operated gold mine.

Economic Pragmatism

However Central Asian leaders are pragmatists and many were left scrambling to fix their economies after the Russian collapse. The long term economic surety and prosperity that China is offering is not just an attractive offer it will be a boon to their economies. They will have roads, railways and other infrastructure built or updated without heavy costs to themselves. Through engagement with China, Central Asia will have new goods being imported and new industries and markets for each of the five states. As Kazakh Foreign Minister Erlan Idrissov stated,

"Our philosophy is simple: We should get on board that train…We want to benefit from the growth of China and we don't see any risks to us in that growth."