Is Russia Really Withdrawing?
Monday’s announcement of the Russian withdrawal from Syria
was surprising to western analysts and media. Unused to a quick insertion and withdrawal
from peacekeeping missions, many had believed that Russia had engaged itself in
the quagmire of Middle Eastern politics for the discernible future.
Putin certainly
appeared sincere in his intention to withdraw in the Kremlin’s televised cabinet
meeting with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov, stating that,
“the objective set before the Defence Ministry
and the Armed Forces is generally fulfilled, so I order
the Defence Ministry to begin withdrawing the main part
of our military group from the Syrian Arab Republic beginning
tomorrow”
Soon reports began to circulate that Washington and Moscow
had come to a secret
deal over the Ukraine, or that recent economic sanctions would soon be
lifted.
War or Something Like
it
The reality is somewhat less surprising; Putin, ever the politician,
was engaging in some good old fashion
doublespeak. In the meeting it can be
noted that Putin remarks that he wants the Russian run maritime base in Tartus
and Hmeymim Airbase to continue to function and be protected from land, sea and
air. Arguing that,
This part of our military group was located
in Syria over the course of many previous years, and today,
it must continue to fulfil the highly important function
of monitoring the ceasefire and creating conditions
for the peace process.
So in reality the withdrawal is merely a drawdown
of certain military platforms like the Su-25 strike aircraft and
Su-34 bombers that were inserted into Syria after October 2015. Remaining
will be the Su-24 bombers
and Mi-24 and Mi-35 attack helicopters, as well as the Su-30SM and Su-35
multirole fighters with the deadly S-400 long range air defence missiles
and the shorter range systems.
Ground troops and naval cover forces protecting and
operating these bases will remain and any of those forces advising and helping
Syrian forces will remain in an advisory capacity. In short this announced
withdrawal is merely another way for Russia to
change around its equipment and personnel while at the same time not really
changing its presence or undermining its assets in the country.
Reports
in the last few days that Russia has continued to provide air support during
the battle for Palmyra support this hypothesis as do the statements of Moscow’s
ambassador to the UN’s
Vitaly Chulkin that drones would still be in use over Syria
supporting the government forces. Russia also has plans to expand the Tartus
naval base and utilise Syria as combat training for its new helicopters the
Ka-52 and Mi-28N.
Training Grounds
If Russia is still maintaining
its position in Syria, what else does it want? Thanks to the Kremlins
transcript it is possible to see the reason for Putin’s sudden involvement in
Syria last October. Putin was simply shooting two birds with one arrow. By
supporting the Assad regime and defending its strategic interests it allowed
Russia to test its weapons systems and tactical operating concepts. Or as
Putin’s states,
In a short period, Russia has created a military group that is
small in number but quite effective – one consisting
of different types of forces and diverse capabilities.
Soft Diplomacy
Now that Russia has met its goal of supporting the Assad
regime to a position of control, it appears that it is prepared for the
transition to soft diplomacy as the next step. Prior to Russia’s announced
withdrawal the Assad government had been playing tough at the peace
negotiations. According to Joshua
Landis the Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University
of Oklahoma the Assad regime had
expressed “a constant drumbeat of confidence that they’re going to take back
every inch of Syrian soil, and Russia is their partner.”
However President Putin does not seem to have received that
memo. Instead, Vladimir Putin has clearly indicated to Bashar al Assad that he
is not wearing the big boots anymore. Rather, Putin, by announcing his
withdrawal, is reminding Assad of who has provided his power in the hope that
this will force the Assad
regime to the negotiation table in Geneva.
Concessions
While it is hoped that a peace deal can be reached, getting
everyone to agree will be difficult. Currently the plan being tossed around by
the Russian and Western powers is a one devised by John Kerry, US Secretary of
State and the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. According to The
Economist both men discussed the possibility of partitioning of Syria into a
federalist state based along clan, and sectarian divisions.
In this
vision the territory in the west, running roughly from Latakia in
the north down to Damascus in the south would be controlled by the Alawites of
whom Bashar al Assad is a member. While the Syrian-Kurdish region in the
north-east, known as Rojava, would be an autonomous Kurdish region and the rest
of the country would be left to the Sunni opposition forces.